From the outset of the Gorton and Denton byelection, Labour strategists were desperate to say the party was on course to win, but the trouncing at the hands of the Greens has made this look laughable in hindsight.
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But success breeds expectation, and expectation carries its own cruel weight. Arsenal tore Villa apart in a 4-1 win in late December and victories have been hard to come by in the new year – they have only won three of their last nine league games. Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea are still below them in the table but the gap is narrowing. With games against United and Chelsea coming in March, the top-three spot Villa have occupied since they beat Wolves in late November suddenly looks in jeopardy. So does their place in the Champions League next season.